STVLab

Market

MARKET REGIME

AGE: 18D
51 NEUTRAL

Equity leadership remains constructive while labor and inflation observations give a more uneven economic backdrop.

  • REGIMEBALANCED
  • MAIN SUPPORTLarge-cap and growth-equity strength, alongside lower equity volatility.

MARKET READ

AGE: 18D
61 STRONG

Growth leadership faces uneven cross-asset confirmation

  • ABOVE 20D AVERAGE59% MIXED
  • ABOVE 50D AVERAGE61% BROAD
  • ABOVE 200D AVERAGE68% BROAD
  • POSITIVE / 5D58% MIXED

MACRO PRESSURE

AGE: 18D
63 ELEVATED

Small-cap and credit weakness coincide with softer payroll growth and rising inflation readings.

  • INFLATION PRESSURE60 ELEVATED
  • RATES PRESSURE66 ELEVATED
  • LABOR PRESSURE65 ELEVATED

SECTOR LEADERSHIP

AGE: 8MIN
SECTORSIGNAL
SECTORConsumer DefensivePARTICIPATION100% · 5 STOCKSRELATIVE STRENGTH+10.2 PPSIGNALBroad participation supports current sector leadership
SECTORHealthcarePARTICIPATION86% · 7 STOCKSRELATIVE STRENGTH+2.1 PPSIGNALBroad participation supports current sector leadership
SECTORTechnologyPARTICIPATION54% · 24 STOCKSRELATIVE STRENGTH+2.4 PPSIGNALSector evidence remains mixed across issuers
SECTORConsumer CyclicalPARTICIPATION50% · 6 STOCKSRELATIVE STRENGTH+4.0 PPSIGNALSector evidence remains mixed across issuers
SECTORFinancial ServicesPARTICIPATION50% · 8 STOCKSRELATIVE STRENGTH-5.4 PPSIGNALSector evidence remains mixed across issuers
SECTORCommunication ServicesPARTICIPATION25% · 4 STOCKSRELATIVE STRENGTH-5.7 PPSIGNALWeak participation confirms current sector weakness

CROSS-ASSET CONFIRMATION

AGE: 18D

QQQ and SPY have advanced while IWM, HYG and TLT have declined over 20 sessions. Lower VIX supports a calmer equity backdrop; weak gold and oil do not establish independent equity confirmation.

MACRO SHIFT

AGE: 8MIN
DRIVERCURRENT SHIFTCHANGEWINDOW
DRIVERINFLATION MOMENTUMCURRENT SHIFTUnderlying inflation is gathering more momentumCHANGE+0.12 PPWINDOWMONTHLY CHANGE
DRIVERHIRING MOMENTUMCURRENT SHIFTMonthly job creation is losing paceCHANGE-104.00K JOBSWINDOWMONTHLY CHANGE
DRIVERSPENDING MOMENTUMCURRENT SHIFTReal spending growth is gaining paceCHANGE+0.50 PPWINDOWMONTHLY CHANGE
DRIVERTREASURY YIELDSCURRENT SHIFTTreasury yields ease recent financing pressureCHANGE-15.00 BPWINDOW5 SESSIONS
DRIVEREQUITIESCURRENT SHIFTEquities declined across the latest five sessionsCHANGE-0.43%WINDOW5 SESSIONS
DRIVERTREASURY BONDSCURRENT SHIFTTreasury bonds gained across the latest five sessionsCHANGE+1.61%WINDOW5 SESSIONS

MARKET REACTION

AGE: 3D
ASSETREACTION
ASSETPLTRLATEST EPS SURPRISE+18.5%POST-REPORT GAP+15.5%REACTIONCONFIRMS BEAT
ASSETAMZNLATEST EPS SURPRISE+215.1%POST-REPORT GAP+12.5%REACTIONCONFIRMS BEAT
ASSETMSFTLATEST EPS SURPRISE+11.8%POST-REPORT GAP+12.1%REACTIONCONFIRMS BEAT
ASSETAAPLLATEST EPS SURPRISE+6.7%POST-REPORT GAP-8.6%REACTIONREJECTS BEAT
ASSETORCLLATEST EPS SURPRISE+10.4%POST-REPORT GAP+7.5%REACTIONCONFIRMS BEAT
ASSETNFLXLATEST EPS SURPRISE+5.8%POST-REPORT GAP-6.6%REACTIONREJECTS BEAT
ASSETAMDLATEST EPS SURPRISE+3.2%POST-REPORT GAP-6.6%REACTIONREJECTS BEAT
ASSETCOINLATEST EPS SURPRISE-487.5%POST-REPORT GAP-6.4%REACTIONCONFIRMS MISS
ASSETNVDALATEST EPS SURPRISE+6.2%POST-REPORT GAP+6.3%REACTIONCONFIRMS BEAT
ASSETGOOGLLATEST EPS SURPRISE+214.2%POST-REPORT GAP-6.1%REACTIONREJECTS BEAT

EVENT RISK WINDOW

AGE: 29D
DATEEVENTRISK CHANNELRISK SUMMARY
DATEOct 28, 2026EVENTInterest-rate decisionRISK CHANNELRATESRISK SUMMARYRate decision can reset market conditions
DATEOct 29, 2026EVENTIncome and PCE inflationRISK CHANNELINFLATIONRISK SUMMARYInflation and spending can reprice rates
DATENov 3, 2026EVENTLabor turnoverRISK CHANNELLABORRISK SUMMARYLabor turnover can shift rate expectations
DATENov 6, 2026EVENTEmployment reportRISK CHANNELLABORRISK SUMMARYEmployment release can reprice growth expectations
DATENov 10, 2026EVENTConsumer inflationRISK CHANNELINFLATIONRISK SUMMARYInflation release can reset rate expectations
DATENov 13, 2026EVENTProducer inflationRISK CHANNELINFLATIONRISK SUMMARYProducer prices can shift inflation expectations
DATENov 25, 2026EVENTIncome and PCE inflationRISK CHANNELINFLATIONRISK SUMMARYInflation and spending can reprice rates