Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.

ASSET SNAPSHOT

AGE: 14H
EQUITY · NasdaqGSAMD
AGE: 14HLAST PRICE$620.68-3.90%
CURRENT STANCETHESIS INTACT

THESIS UPDATE

AGE: 2H
THESIS CHANGE—

CHANGE SCORE 18 WATCH

THESIS IMPACT—

SETUP SCORE 67 STRONG

MAIN RISKA momentum reversal could erase a substantial part of the advance.

DECISION STANCE

AGE: 2H
Strong momentum faces a wider pullback
  • VIEW CONFIDENCE68 SOLID
  • INDICATOR COVERAGE100% COMPLETE
  • HORIZON4 WEEKS
  • AS OFOct 9, 2026

TRADING THESIS

AGE: 2H
A large month-long advance and relative strength support the trend, with revenue and net-income growth reinforcing the business backdrop. The scale of the advance makes retention of the breakout more useful than assuming uninterrupted appreciation.
  • THESIS STATEUNCHANGED

SETUP READINESS

AGE: 2H
WAITING
  • MAIN OBSTACLEThe large advance leaves more room for a pullback.
  • CONFIRMATIONPrice retains the higher range after a resistance test.
  • EXTENSION1.6 ATR

THESIS INVALIDATION

AGE: 2H
A daily close below 480.33 invalidates the current stabilization or advance.

CATALYST MAP

AGE: 2D
The next earnings report is scheduled for 11/3/2026.
  • NEXT EARNINGSNov 3, 2026

NARRATIVE EVIDENCE

AGE: 2H
  • NEWS CONTEXT—
  • FILING CONTEXT—
  • CALL CONTEXT—

MEDIUM-TERM TREND

AGE: 30MIN
96 VERY STRONG
  • 20D MOVE+23.9%
  • 63D MOVE+18.1%
  • VS 20D AVERAGE+5.6%
  • VS 50D AVERAGE+18.8%
  • VS 200D AVERAGE+62.8%

VOLUME QUALITY

AGE: 30MIN
61 STRONG
  • 20D VOLUME RATIO0.84×
  • 20D OBV SLOPE0.54

MARKET DEPENDENCE

AGE: 30MIN
3.07× BETA
  • 63D CORRELATION0.53
  • 20D RELATIVE STRENGTH+21.7%
  • 63D RELATIVE STRENGTH+14.5%

DOWNSIDE PROFILE

AGE: 30MIN
45 MODERATE
  • 1D VAR / 95%−5.7%
  • 1D EXPECTED SHORTFALL−8.2%
  • 63D LOSS DAYS46%
  • 63D MAX DRAWDOWN-23.0%
  • 252D MAX DRAWDOWN-27.8%

RETURN EFFICIENCY

AGE: 30MIN
0.92×
  • 63D MOVE+18.1%
  • 63D DOWNSIDE VOL39.4%
  • 63D REALIZED VOL62.6%

RISK / REWARD

AGE: 30MIN
0.27×
  • UPSIDE TO RESISTANCE6.1%
  • DOWNSIDE TO SUPPORT22.6%
  • SUPPORT$480.33
  • RESISTANCE$658.52
  • ATR / PRICE3.63%

FUNDAMENTAL QUALITY

AGE: 3H
69 STRONG
  • GROSS MARGIN53.2%
  • OPERATING MARGIN15.7%
  • NET MARGIN15.6%
  • FCF MARGIN20.3%
  • EARNINGS QUALITY1.57×
  • RETURN ON EQUITY9.6%

FUNDAMENTAL MOMENTUM

AGE: 3H
100 VERY STRONG
  • REVENUE GROWTH+50.1%
  • NET INCOME GROWTH+163.4%

ESTIMATE DIRECTION

AGE: 30MIN
+0.2%
  • EPS REVISION / 7D+0.2%
  • REVISION BREADTH79%

VALUATION PRESSURE

AGE: 14H
77 HIGH
  • FORWARD P/E39.5×
  • TRAILING P/E158.3×
  • PEG0.66×
  • EV / EBITDA109.3×
  • PRICE / BOOK15.1×

EXPECTATIONS VS REALITY

AGE: 2H
CONSENSUSSeptember-quarter EPS is estimated at $1.93; earnings are scheduled for November 3.

EXPECTATIONS 82 VERY STRONG

PRICED-IN BAR—
REPORTED REALITYJune-quarter EPS was $1.66, with higher revenue and net income year over year.

SURPRISE GAP

AGE: 2D
-6.6%

June EPS exceeded the matching $1.61 estimate.

  • LATEST EPS SURPRISE+3.2%
  • BEAT RATE100%

EVIDENCE BALANCE

AGE: 2H
A momentum reversal could erase a substantial part of the advance. Price retains the higher range after a resistance test.
  • JUDGMENT STATESUPPORTIVE
  • SUPPORTOver 20 completed sessions, AMD returned +23.94%; The large advance leaves more room for a pullback.
  • OPPOSITION—
  • CONFLICTJune-quarter EPS was $1.66, with higher revenue and net income year over year. June EPS exceeded the matching $1.61 estimate.

SCENARIO PATHS

AGE: 2H
BULL CASE32% WEIGHT

The higher range holds and momentum extends.

TRIGGER · A daily close above 658.52, the recent upper price boundary.

INVALIDATION · Price returns below 480.33, the recent lower price boundary.

RANGE · +29.9% TO +51.6%
BASE CASE54% WEIGHT

Price consolidates after its large monthly advance.

TRIGGER · Daily closes remain between 480.33 and 658.52.

INVALIDATION · A retained daily close outside 480.33 to 658.52.

RANGE · -5.1% TO +29.9%
BEAR CASE14% WEIGHT

A failed higher range produces a deeper correction.

TRIGGER · A daily close below 480.33, the recent lower price boundary.

INVALIDATION · Price recovers above 658.52, the recent upper price boundary.

RANGE · -13.6% TO -5.1%

VIEW HISTORY

AGE: 2H
AS OFSTANCETHESIS STATESIGNAL SUMMARYCONFIDENCE
AS OFOct 9, 2026STANCETHESIS INTACTTHESIS STATEUNCHANGEDSIGNAL SUMMARYStrong momentum faces a wider pullbackCONFIDENCE68 SOLID

FORECAST TRACK RECORD

AGE: —
—
  • CLOSED FORECASTS—
  • AVERAGE REALIZED RETURN—

EVENT RISK WINDOW

AGE: 25D
DATEEVENTRISK CHANNELRISK SUMMARY
DATEOct 14, 2026EVENTConsumer inflationRISK CHANNELINFLATIONRISK SUMMARYInflation release can reset rate expectations
DATEOct 15, 2026EVENTProducer inflationRISK CHANNELINFLATIONRISK SUMMARYProducer prices can shift inflation expectations
DATEOct 28, 2026EVENTInterest-rate decisionRISK CHANNELRATESRISK SUMMARYRate decision can reset market conditions
DATEOct 29, 2026EVENTIncome and PCE inflationRISK CHANNELINFLATIONRISK SUMMARYInflation and spending can reprice rates
DATENov 3, 2026EVENTLabor turnoverRISK CHANNELLABORRISK SUMMARYLabor turnover can shift rate expectations