Micron Technology, Inc.

ASSET SNAPSHOT

AGE: 15H
EQUITY · NasdaqGSMU
AGE: 15HLAST PRICE$1,035.84-4.79%
CURRENT STANCEMIXED

THESIS UPDATE

AGE: 2H
THESIS CHANGE—

CHANGE SCORE 18 WATCH

THESIS IMPACT—

SETUP SCORE 74 VERY STRONG

MAIN RISKVolatility can turn consolidation into a larger correction.

DECISION STANCE

AGE: 2H
Strong profits meet volatile price consolidation
  • VIEW CONFIDENCE59 LIMITED
  • INDICATOR COVERAGE100% COMPLETE
  • HORIZON4 WEEKS
  • AS OFOct 9, 2026

TRADING THESIS

AGE: 2H
Reported revenue and profit growth are strong, but the current price sits below the recent high after volatile trading. The business improvement supports the backdrop without establishing that consolidation is complete.
  • THESIS STATEUNCHANGED

SETUP READINESS

AGE: 2H
WAITING
  • MAIN OBSTACLEWide price swings weaken the timing of continuation.
  • CONFIRMATIONPrice reclaims the recent high and retains the recovered range.
  • EXTENSION0.1 ATR

THESIS INVALIDATION

AGE: 2H
A daily close below 902.60 invalidates the current stabilization or advance.

CATALYST MAP

AGE: 3D
—
  • NEXT EARNINGSDec 23, 2026

NARRATIVE EVIDENCE

AGE: 2H
  • NEWS CONTEXT—
  • FILING CONTEXT—
  • CALL CONTEXT—

MEDIUM-TERM TREND

AGE: 54MIN
81 VERY STRONG
  • 20D MOVE+5.9%
  • 63D MOVE+9.7%
  • VS 20D AVERAGE+0.3%
  • VS 50D AVERAGE+7.1%
  • VS 200D AVERAGE+49.3%

VOLUME QUALITY

AGE: 54MIN
74 VERY STRONG
  • 20D VOLUME RATIO1.22×
  • 20D OBV SLOPE0.35

MARKET DEPENDENCE

AGE: 54MIN
2.84× BETA
  • 63D CORRELATION0.41
  • 20D RELATIVE STRENGTH+3.7%
  • 63D RELATIVE STRENGTH+6.1%

DOWNSIDE PROFILE

AGE: 54MIN
59 ELEVATED
  • 1D VAR / 95%−7.0%
  • 1D EXPECTED SHORTFALL−9.5%
  • 63D LOSS DAYS49%
  • 63D MAX DRAWDOWN-25.4%
  • 252D MAX DRAWDOWN-39.1%

RETURN EFFICIENCY

AGE: 54MIN
0.40×
  • 63D MOVE+9.7%
  • 63D DOWNSIDE VOL48.9%
  • 63D REALIZED VOL73.9%

RISK / REWARD

AGE: 54MIN
0.55×
  • UPSIDE TO RESISTANCE7.0%
  • DOWNSIDE TO SUPPORT12.9%
  • SUPPORT$902.60
  • RESISTANCE$1,108.72
  • ATR / PRICE4.22%

FUNDAMENTAL QUALITY

AGE: 1D
92 VERY STRONG
  • GROSS MARGIN72.6%
  • OPERATING MARGIN65.7%
  • NET MARGIN55.9%
  • FCF MARGIN29.0%
  • EARNINGS QUALITY1.02×
  • RETURN ON EQUITY50.1%

FUNDAMENTAL MOMENTUM

AGE: 1D
100 VERY STRONG
  • REVENUE GROWTH+345.7%
  • NET INCOME GROWTH+1398.3%

ESTIMATE DIRECTION

AGE: 54MIN
+9.5%
  • EPS REVISION / 7D+7.1%
  • REVISION BREADTH71%

VALUATION PRESSURE

AGE: 15H
21 LOW
  • FORWARD P/E5.0×
  • TRAILING P/E13.9×
  • PEG0.16×
  • EV / EBITDA10.5×
  • PRICE / BOOK11.6×

EXPECTATIONS VS REALITY

AGE: 2H
CONSENSUS—

EXPECTATIONS 99 VERY STRONG

PRICED-IN BAR—
REPORTED REALITYAugust-quarter EPS was $33.42, with higher revenue and net income.

SURPRISE GAP

AGE: 1D
-1.0%

August EPS exceeded its matching $31.82 estimate.

  • LATEST EPS SURPRISE+5.0%
  • BEAT RATE100%

EVIDENCE BALANCE

AGE: 2H
Volatility can turn consolidation into a larger correction. Price reclaims the recent high and retains the recovered range.
  • JUDGMENT STATECONFLICTED
  • SUPPORTOver 20 completed sessions, MU returned +5.86%; Wide price swings weaken the timing of continuation.
  • OPPOSITION—
  • CONFLICTAugust-quarter EPS was $33.42, with higher revenue and net income. August EPS exceeded its matching $31.82 estimate.

SCENARIO PATHS

AGE: 2H
BULL CASE33% WEIGHT

Price clears the high as profit strength remains supportive.

TRIGGER · A daily close above 1108.72, the recent upper price boundary.

INVALIDATION · Price returns below 902.60, the recent lower price boundary.

RANGE · +33.0% TO +50.8%
BASE CASE52% WEIGHT

Wide consolidation absorbs the latest earnings improvement.

TRIGGER · Daily closes remain between 902.60 and 1108.72.

INVALIDATION · A retained daily close outside 902.60 to 1108.72.

RANGE · +0.9% TO +33.0%
BEAR CASE15% WEIGHT

Consolidation support fails despite strong reported profits.

TRIGGER · A daily close below 902.60, the recent lower price boundary.

INVALIDATION · Price recovers above 1108.72, the recent upper price boundary.

RANGE · -8.0% TO +0.9%

VIEW HISTORY

AGE: 2H
AS OFSTANCETHESIS STATESIGNAL SUMMARYCONFIDENCE
AS OFOct 9, 2026STANCEMIXEDTHESIS STATEUNCHANGEDSIGNAL SUMMARYStrong profits meet volatile price consolidationCONFIDENCE59 LIMITED

FORECAST TRACK RECORD

AGE: —
—
  • CLOSED FORECASTS—
  • AVERAGE REALIZED RETURN—

EVENT RISK WINDOW

AGE: 25D
DATEEVENTRISK CHANNELRISK SUMMARY
DATEOct 14, 2026EVENTConsumer inflationRISK CHANNELINFLATIONRISK SUMMARYInflation release can reset rate expectations
DATEOct 15, 2026EVENTProducer inflationRISK CHANNELINFLATIONRISK SUMMARYProducer prices can shift inflation expectations
DATEOct 28, 2026EVENTInterest-rate decisionRISK CHANNELRATESRISK SUMMARYRate decision can reset market conditions
DATEOct 29, 2026EVENTIncome and PCE inflationRISK CHANNELINFLATIONRISK SUMMARYInflation and spending can reprice rates
DATENov 3, 2026EVENTLabor turnoverRISK CHANNELLABORRISK SUMMARYLabor turnover can shift rate expectations