Berkshire Hathaway Inc.

ASSET SNAPSHOT

AGE: 15H
EQUITY · NYSEBRK-B
AGE: 15HLAST PRICE$511.05+0.95%
CURRENT STANCENEUTRAL

THESIS UPDATE

AGE: 2H
THESIS CHANGE—

CHANGE SCORE 18 WATCH

THESIS IMPACT—

SETUP SCORE 60 STRONG

MAIN RISKA range failure would replace stabilization with a directional move.

DECISION STANCE

AGE: 2H
The trading range remains largely intact
  • VIEW CONFIDENCE65 SOLID
  • INDICATOR COVERAGE93% COMPLETE
  • HORIZON4 WEEKS
  • AS OFOct 9, 2026

TRADING THESIS

AGE: 2H
Price has changed little over the month despite a recent rebound. Reported revenue and profit growth support the business backdrop, but the range itself provides a clearer near-term framework than a strong directional case.
  • THESIS STATEUNCHANGED

SETUP READINESS

AGE: 2H
WAITING
  • MAIN OBSTACLEThe month-long range has not produced a clear break.
  • CONFIRMATIONPrice closes beyond the range and retains the break.
  • EXTENSION0.8 ATR

THESIS INVALIDATION

AGE: 2H
A retained daily close outside 495.96 to 523.74 ends the range thesis.

CATALYST MAP

AGE: 32D
—
  • NEXT EARNINGSNov 7, 2026

NARRATIVE EVIDENCE

AGE: 2H
  • NEWS CONTEXT—
  • FILING CONTEXT—
  • CALL CONTEXT—

MEDIUM-TERM TREND

AGE: 57MIN
53 NEUTRAL
  • 20D MOVE-0.1%
  • 63D MOVE+2.2%
  • VS 20D AVERAGE+0.9%
  • VS 50D AVERAGE+0.7%
  • VS 200D AVERAGE+3.7%

VOLUME QUALITY

AGE: 57MIN
59 STRONG
  • 20D VOLUME RATIO0.76×
  • 20D OBV SLOPE0.30

MARKET DEPENDENCE

AGE: 57MIN
-0.07× BETA
  • 63D CORRELATION-0.05
  • 20D RELATIVE STRENGTH-2.3%
  • 63D RELATIVE STRENGTH-1.5%

DOWNSIDE PROFILE

AGE: 57MIN
6 LOW
  • 1D VAR / 95%−1.5%
  • 1D EXPECTED SHORTFALL−2.0%
  • 63D LOSS DAYS43%
  • 63D MAX DRAWDOWN-6.3%
  • 252D MAX DRAWDOWN-9.4%

RETURN EFFICIENCY

AGE: 57MIN
0.47×
  • 63D MOVE+2.2%
  • 63D DOWNSIDE VOL9.3%
  • 63D REALIZED VOL13.5%

RISK / REWARD

AGE: 57MIN
0.84×
  • UPSIDE TO RESISTANCE2.5%
  • DOWNSIDE TO SUPPORT3.0%
  • SUPPORT$495.96
  • RESISTANCE$523.74
  • ATR / PRICE1.06%

FUNDAMENTAL QUALITY

AGE: 8H
42 SOFT
  • GROSS MARGIN—
  • OPERATING MARGIN—
  • NET MARGIN22.3%
  • FCF MARGIN6.3%
  • EARNINGS QUALITY0.54×
  • RETURN ON EQUITY11.5%

FUNDAMENTAL MOMENTUM

AGE: 8H
79 VERY STRONG
  • REVENUE GROWTH+10.0%
  • NET INCOME GROWTH+107.5%

ESTIMATE DIRECTION

AGE: 57MIN
+8.7%
  • EPS REVISION / 7D+8.1%
  • REVISION BREADTH100%

VALUATION PRESSURE

AGE: 15H
27 LOW
  • FORWARD P/E23.6×
  • TRAILING P/E12.9×
  • PEG10.06×
  • EV / EBITDA-1.8×
  • PRICE / BOOK0.0×

EXPECTATIONS VS REALITY

AGE: 2H
CONSENSUSSeptember-quarter EPS is estimated at $5.78.

EXPECTATIONS 88 VERY STRONG

PRICED-IN BAR—
REPORTED REALITYJune-quarter EPS was $6.03, with higher revenue and net income.

SURPRISE GAP

AGE: 19D
+0.5%

June EPS exceeded its matching $5.13 estimate.

  • LATEST EPS SURPRISE+17.4%
  • BEAT RATE75%

EVIDENCE BALANCE

AGE: 2H
A range failure would replace stabilization with a directional move. Price closes beyond the range and retains the break.
  • JUDGMENT STATEBALANCED
  • SUPPORTOver 20 completed sessions, BRK-B returned -0.09%; The month-long range has not produced a clear break.
  • OPPOSITION—
  • CONFLICTJune-quarter EPS was $6.03, with higher revenue and net income. June EPS exceeded its matching $5.13 estimate.

SCENARIO PATHS

AGE: 2H
BULL CASE25% WEIGHT

A retained resistance break establishes a stronger advance.

TRIGGER · A daily close above 523.74, the recent upper price boundary.

INVALIDATION · Price returns below 495.96, the recent lower price boundary.

RANGE · +2.0% TO +3.4%
BASE CASE59% WEIGHT

Price continues trading within its established range.

TRIGGER · Daily closes remain between 495.96 and 523.74.

INVALIDATION · A retained daily close outside 495.96 to 523.74.

RANGE · -1.4% TO +2.0%
BEAR CASE16% WEIGHT

A support break ends the stabilization.

TRIGGER · A daily close below 495.96, the recent lower price boundary.

INVALIDATION · Price recovers above 523.74, the recent upper price boundary.

RANGE · -3.0% TO -1.4%

VIEW HISTORY

AGE: 2H
AS OFSTANCETHESIS STATESIGNAL SUMMARYCONFIDENCE
AS OFOct 9, 2026STANCENEUTRALTHESIS STATEUNCHANGEDSIGNAL SUMMARYThe trading range remains largely intactCONFIDENCE65 SOLID

FORECAST TRACK RECORD

AGE: —
—
  • CLOSED FORECASTS—
  • AVERAGE REALIZED RETURN—

EVENT RISK WINDOW

AGE: 25D
DATEEVENTRISK CHANNELRISK SUMMARY
DATEOct 14, 2026EVENTConsumer inflationRISK CHANNELINFLATIONRISK SUMMARYInflation release can reset rate expectations
DATEOct 15, 2026EVENTProducer inflationRISK CHANNELINFLATIONRISK SUMMARYProducer prices can shift inflation expectations
DATEOct 28, 2026EVENTInterest-rate decisionRISK CHANNELRATESRISK SUMMARYRate decision can reset market conditions
DATEOct 29, 2026EVENTIncome and PCE inflationRISK CHANNELINFLATIONRISK SUMMARYInflation and spending can reprice rates
DATENov 3, 2026EVENTLabor turnoverRISK CHANNELLABORRISK SUMMARYLabor turnover can shift rate expectations