Bitcoin USD

Explains what materially changed in the central thesis, why that change matters, and its main risk. A new headline alone is not a thesis change. The change score measures broader input changes, while the setup score measures current quality. AGE reflects the oldest current calculation or accepted view shown here. Historical comparison periods do not set this age.

• CHANGE SCORE0–14 is quiet, 15–34 watch, 35–64 material, and 65–100 major. Higher means review priority, not price direction. A first calculation can score 100 because the asset has no earlier comparison.
• SETUP SCORECurrent setup quality. 0–29 is weak, 30–44 soft, 45–55 neutral, 56–70 strong, and 71–100 very strong. A large change score can accompany either an improving or a deteriorating setup.

Explains the main stance in one short conclusion. Confidence shows the strength of the reading, coverage shows its numeric foundation, and the horizon gives the period it addresses. AGE reflects the oldest current calculation or accepted view shown here. Historical comparison periods do not set this age.

• SIGNAL SUMMARYThe main reason behind the asset's current stance.
• VIEW CONFIDENCE0–30 is weak, 31–60 limited or mixed, 61–80 solid, and 81–100 high. This is evidence strength, not a measured chance of profit. Higher values mean firmer evidence behind the interpretation.
• INDICATOR COVERAGEBelow 50% is insufficient, 50–74% partial, 75–89% good, and 90–100% complete. Measures how much of the expected numeric foundation is available within the formula groups.
• HORIZONThe period addressed by the current view.
• AS OFPublication date of the current view. Material developments after this date may change its context.

Explains the central case for the asset over the coming month and what supports it. The signal summary is only a headline; thesis state tracks a change in the case itself, not a change in wording. AGE measures the age of the accepted view shown here. Historical comparison periods do not set this age.

• THESISThe central case connecting the asset's business, price behavior and current conditions.
• THESIS STATEStrengthened: new evidence improved the case. Weakened: evidence deteriorated. Unchanged: the case holds. Invalidated: its key support has broken.

Separates a strong setup from a well-timed setup. Readiness describes current conditions, the obstacle explains what is missing, and confirmation identifies the next development to watch. AGE reflects the oldest current calculation or accepted view shown here. Historical comparison periods do not set this age.

• READINESSAligned: conditions agree. Waiting: confirmation is missing. Extended: price is stretched. Blocked: a dominant risk limits the setup. Unclear: evidence is incomplete.
• EXTENSIONDistance from the 20-session average in ATR units. Above +2 is stretched upward; below -1 is below the recent trend. Larger distance makes timing more sensitive.

Names the evidence that would overturn the current thesis. A matching development is a reason to reassess the case rather than rely on its earlier support. AGE measures the age of the accepted view shown here. Historical comparison periods do not set this age.

Identifies the event most likely to change the current thesis. The interpretation explains what matters, and the next earnings date marks the nearest company reporting checkpoint. AGE reflects the oldest current calculation or accepted view shown here. Historical comparison periods do not set this age.

• NEXT EARNINGSNext known earnings date. An event within the current horizon brings company results and guidance into the setup.
• CATALYST READExplains the event's main effect on the current thesis.

Explains how material news, filing disclosures and management commentary affect the thesis. These observations connect business developments with the price and financial evidence elsewhere on the page. AGE measures the age of the accepted view shown here. Historical comparison periods do not set this age.

• NEWS CONTEXTExplains how material reported developments support or weaken the thesis.
• FILING CONTEXTInterpretation of material filing disclosures. A dash means there is no separate filing interpretation; reporting developments may appear in News Context.
• CALL CONTEXTInterpretation of management commentary backed by a call transcript. A dash means there is no supported call interpretation.

Describes trend strength and price position relative to moving averages. Agreement across the shorter and longer windows supports a clearer trend; disagreement points to a transition. AGE reflects the oldest current calculation or accepted view shown here. Historical comparison periods do not set this age.

• TREND SCORECombines price versus the 20-, 50- and 200-session averages with 20- and 63-session trend slopes. 0–29 is weak, 30–44 soft, 45–55 neutral, 56–70 strong, and 71–100 very strong. Higher values mean stronger upward alignment.
• 20D MOVEReturn across 20 closed daily sessions. Positive means a recent advance; a large advance alongside high extension indicates a stretched move. Bitcoin sessions include weekends.
• 63D MOVEReturn across 63 closed daily sessions. Agreement with the 20-session direction supports a clearer trend; disagreement indicates a transition.
• VS 20D AVERAGEPercentage distance from the 20-session average. Positive means above the short trend; a large distance indicates extension.
• VS 50D AVERAGEPercentage distance from the 50-session average. Positive supports medium-term structure; negative weakens it.
• VS 200D AVERAGEPercentage distance from the 200-session average. Its sign shows whether the longer trend supports the recent move.

Checks how much trading activity supports the price move. Read volume alongside direction: heavier activity can strengthen either an advance or a decline. AGE reflects the oldest current calculation or accepted view shown here. Historical comparison periods do not set this age.

• VOLUME QUALITYCombines the volume ratio with the OBV slope. 0–29 is weak, 30–44 soft, 45–55 neutral, 56–70 strong, and 71–100 very strong. Higher readings indicate stronger volume support for the price structure.
• 20D VOLUME RATIOLatest closed daily volume divided by the previous 20 sessions' average. Above 1× is more active than usual; below 1× is quieter. Price direction determines whether that activity reinforces an advance or decline.
• 20D OBV SLOPEDirection of accumulated up-day versus down-day volume. Positive suggests accumulation; negative suggests distribution. The slope is scaled by average volume.

Shows how closely the asset moves with the broad equity market. Beta measures sensitivity, correlation measures alignment, and relative strength separates leadership from lagging performance. AGE reflects the oldest current calculation or accepted view shown here. Historical comparison periods do not set this age.

• 63D MARKET BETASensitivity to SPY over up to 63 aligned return pairs. Above 1 indicates amplified market sensitivity, 0–1 lower sensitivity, and below 0 inverse sensitivity.
• 63D CORRELATIONMovement alignment with SPY, from -1 to +1. Near +1 means closely aligned; near 0 means weak alignment; near -1 means opposite movement.
• 20D RELATIVE STRENGTHAsset return minus SPY return over 20 aligned observations, in percentage points. Positive means outperformance; negative means underperformance.
• 63D RELATIVE STRENGTHThe same comparison over 63 aligned observations. Agreement with the shorter reading supports a firmer relative trend.

Summarizes recent downside behavior. The risk score describes overall instability, loss-day frequency shows how often prices fell, and drawdowns show the depth of past declines. AGE reflects the oldest current calculation or accepted view shown here. Historical comparison periods do not set this age.

• TECHNICAL RISKCombines volatility, ATR, current drawdown and downside variability. 0–29 is low, 30–49 moderate, 50–69 elevated, and 70–100 high. Higher values describe a less stable price path.
• 1D VAR / 95%Historical one-day loss threshold exceeded on roughly 5% of sampled days, based on 100–252 daily returns. A larger loss magnitude indicates a heavier downside tail.
• 1D EXPECTED SHORTFALLAverage loss among the worst 5% of sampled daily returns. A large gap beyond VaR shows how severe the weakest sessions became.
• 63D LOSS DAYSShare of negative days across the latest 63 daily sessions. Above 55% means losses dominated session frequency.
• 63D MAX DRAWDOWNLargest closing-price peak-to-trough decline across 63 daily sessions. A deeper decline means a more difficult recent downside path.
• 252D MAX DRAWDOWNLargest closing-price peak-to-trough decline across 252 sessions. Comparison with the 63-session figure separates recent weakness from a longer drawdown. Bitcoin includes weekend sessions.

Compares the recent return with the downside variability behind it. Higher efficiency means more return for the measured downside movement; a negative value means the period lost ground. AGE reflects the oldest current calculation or accepted view shown here. Historical comparison periods do not set this age.

• DOWNSIDE EFFICIENCY63-session return divided by downside variability scaled to that horizon. Above 1 means return exceeded that variability; below zero means a negative return.
• 63D MOVEReturn across 63 daily sessions: the return side of the efficiency measure.
• 63D DOWNSIDE VOLAnnualized downside variability over 63 sessions. Higher values mean larger negative daily movements; non-negative days contribute zero downside.
• 63D REALIZED VOLAnnualized variability of all daily returns over the same window. Comparison with downside volatility shows how much of the variation comes from negative moves.

Maps the room to nearby resistance against the distance to support. The ratio compares those distances, while ATR shows whether the available room is large or small relative to normal price movement. AGE reflects the oldest current calculation or accepted view shown here. Historical comparison periods do not set this age.

• REWARD / RISK RATIODistance to 20-session resistance divided by distance to support. Above 1× means more room to resistance than to support; below 1× means less.
• UPSIDE / DOWNSIDE DISTANCEPercentage distances from current price to resistance and support. Comparison with ATR shows whether those levels are close in everyday movement terms.
• SUPPORTLowest low of the last 20 closed daily sessions. A break below it weakens the current trading range.
• RESISTANCEHighest high of the last 20 closed daily sessions. Little room to this level means the mapped upside depends more on a breakout.
• ATR / PRICESmoothed 14-session true range as a percentage of price. Higher values mean a wider normal daily movement range.

Measures business profitability and cash generation. Strong margins backed by cash flow provide firmer support for earnings than profit growth with weak cash conversion. AGE reflects the oldest current calculation or accepted view shown here. Historical comparison periods do not set this age.

• FUNDAMENTAL QUALITYCombines available profitability, cash-flow and return-on-equity measures below. 0–29 is weak, 30–44 soft, 45–55 neutral, 56–70 strong, and 71–100 very strong. Higher scores mean stronger business quality across those inputs.
• GROSS MARGINGross profit as a share of trailing revenue. Higher margins leave more revenue to cover operating costs.
• OPERATING MARGINOperating profit as a share of trailing revenue. Higher positive values indicate stronger profitability after operating costs.
• NET MARGINNet income as a share of trailing revenue. Higher values mean more revenue reaches the bottom line.
• FCF MARGINFree cash flow as a share of trailing revenue. Higher positive values mean stronger cash generation after capital spending.
• EARNINGS QUALITYOperating cash flow divided by net income. Around 1× means earnings are broadly cash-backed; materially below 1× indicates weaker cash backing.
• RETURN ON EQUITYTrailing net income relative to equity. Higher positive values indicate stronger returns on shareholder capital; high leverage can also raise this ratio.

Compares the latest quarter with the matching quarter a year earlier. Revenue and profit growing together show broader business progress; divergence deserves a closer look at margins and costs. AGE reflects the oldest current calculation or accepted view shown here. Historical comparison periods do not set this age.

• GROWTH SCORECombines year-over-year revenue and net-income growth. 0–29 is weak, 30–44 soft, 45–55 neutral, 56–70 strong, and 71–100 very strong. Higher means stronger business expansion across the available measures.
• REVENUE GROWTHLatest quarterly revenue versus the matching quarter a year earlier. Positive means expansion; negative means contraction.
• NET INCOME GROWTHLatest quarterly net-income change versus the matching quarter a year earlier. Positive means improved profit or a smaller loss; negative means deterioration.

Tracks changes in expected earnings for the same reporting period. The 30-day change gives the main direction; the seven-day change and revision breadth show recent momentum and agreement. AGE reflects the oldest current calculation or accepted view shown here. Historical comparison periods do not set this age.

• EPS REVISION / 7DConsensus earnings-per-share change over seven calendar days. Positive means estimates rose; negative means they fell.
• 30D DIRECTIONConsensus EPS change over 30 calendar days for the same reporting period. Agreement with the seven-day change indicates a sustained revision direction.
• REVISION BREADTHUpward minus downward revisions as a share of all revisions. Positive means increases dominate; negative means cuts dominate.

Measures how demanding the price is relative to earnings, growth and book value. Higher valuation pressure means stronger business performance is needed to support that price. AGE reflects the oldest current view, calculation or quoted trade shown here. Price age uses the time of the quoted trade.

• VALUATION PRESSURE0–29 is low, 30–49 moderate, 50–69 elevated, and 70–100 high. Combines available earnings, growth and book-value multiples. Higher readings leave less room for disappointing business performance.
• FORWARD P/EPrice divided by expected earnings. A higher multiple asks more of future earnings; the score scales from 12× to 45×.
• TRAILING P/EPrice divided by reported earnings. A higher multiple places a larger price on current profitability; the score scales from 15× to 50×.
• PEGP/E relative to expected earnings growth. Higher values indicate a more demanding valuation for that growth; the score scales from 1× to 3.5×.
• EV / EBITDAEnterprise value relative to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. Higher values indicate a larger valuation against this earnings base; the score scales from 8× to 30×.
• PRICE / BOOKPrice relative to reported book value. Higher values mean a larger premium to book; compare within the same industry. The score scales from 2× to 12×.

Compares expected company performance with the bar reflected in price and the reported result. The gap between these three explains why good earnings can still receive a weak reaction. AGE reflects the oldest current calculation or accepted view shown here. Historical comparison periods do not set this age.

• EXPECTATIONS SCORECombines EPS revisions, revision breadth, recommendation balance and up to four earnings surprises. 0–29 is weak, 30–44 soft, 45–55 neutral, 56–70 strong, and 71–100 very strong. Higher values indicate a more supportive expectations trend.

Connects an earnings surprise with the opening gap after that report. A strong result with a weak gap suggests the market required more; beat rate adds recent reporting context. AGE reflects the oldest current calculation or accepted view shown here. Historical comparison periods do not set this age.

• LATEST EPS SURPRISEReported earnings per share versus consensus. Positive means above expectations; negative means below.
• POST-REPORT GAPFirst regular-session open after the report versus the previous close. A weak opening after a beat points to a demanding expectations bar.
• BEAT RATEShare of up to four available earnings surprises above zero. Higher values mean beats were more frequent in that reporting sample.

Places supporting facts, opposing facts and unresolved conflicts next to the current judgment. A clear imbalance strengthens the reading; material conflicts explain a more mixed conclusion. AGE measures the age of the accepted view shown here. Historical comparison periods do not set this age.

• JUDGMENT STATESupportive: evidence favors the thesis. Pressured: opposing evidence dominates. Balanced: neither side is decisive.
• SUPPORTThe strongest fact backing the thesis.
• OPPOSITIONThe strongest fact working against the thesis.
• CONFLICTAn unresolved contradiction that makes the overall reading less clear.

Compares archived stances, signal summaries and thesis states. A rewritten summary does not itself mean the thesis changed; read the thesis state separately. AGE measures the age of the accepted view shown here. Historical comparison periods do not set this age.

• AS OFDate of each past view. Changes between versions show when the interpretation shifted.
• VIEW CONFIDENCE0–30 is weak, 31–60 limited or mixed, 61–80 solid, and 81–100 high. This is evidence strength, not a measured chance of profit. Rising confidence means the evidence became firmer; falling confidence means it became less clear.

Summarizes completed, non-overlapping forecasts. Hit rate shows how often their stated tests passed; average realized return shows the price change across those horizons. Both require at least ten outcomes. AGE measures when the displayed forecast outcomes were last evaluated.

• CLOSED FORECASTSNumber of completed forecasts with evaluated outcomes.
• HIT RATEShare that passed their stated closing-return test. Appears after at least ten completed, non-overlapping observations.
• AVERAGE REALIZED RETURNAverage asset return over evaluated horizons. Read beside hit rate: frequency of success and size of price movement describe different parts of the record.