Broadcom Inc.

ASSET SNAPSHOT

AGE: 15H
EQUITY · NasdaqGSAVGO
AGE: 15HLAST PRICE$360.14-4.35%
CURRENT STANCEWAIT FOR CONFIRMATION

THESIS UPDATE

AGE: 2H
THESIS CHANGE—

CHANGE SCORE 18 WATCH

THESIS IMPACT—

SETUP SCORE 62 STRONG

MAIN RISKA stalled rebound could restore pressure within the trading range.

DECISION STANCE

AGE: 2H
The rebound has yet to confirm
  • VIEW CONFIDENCE63 SOLID
  • INDICATOR COVERAGE100% COMPLETE
  • HORIZON4 WEEKS
  • AS OFOct 9, 2026

TRADING THESIS

AGE: 2H
The latest five-session recovery is stronger than the month-long advance, while revenue and profits have expanded. A sustained break above the recent high is needed to distinguish renewed trend strength from a rebound inside the existing range.
  • THESIS STATEUNCHANGED

SETUP READINESS

AGE: 2H
WAITING
  • MAIN OBSTACLEThe month-long price structure is less decisive than the latest rebound.
  • CONFIRMATIONPrice closes above the recent high and holds the recovered range.
  • EXTENSION0.5 ATR

THESIS INVALIDATION

AGE: 2H
A daily close below 335.20 invalidates the current stabilization or advance.

CATALYST MAP

AGE: 7D
—
  • NEXT EARNINGSDec 9, 2026

NARRATIVE EVIDENCE

AGE: 2H
  • NEWS CONTEXT—
  • FILING CONTEXT—
  • CALL CONTEXT—

MEDIUM-TERM TREND

AGE: 55MIN
45 SOFT
  • 20D MOVE+3.5%
  • 63D MOVE-6.0%
  • VS 20D AVERAGE+1.4%
  • VS 50D AVERAGE-3.2%
  • VS 200D AVERAGE-1.8%

VOLUME QUALITY

AGE: 55MIN
58 STRONG
  • 20D VOLUME RATIO0.74×
  • 20D OBV SLOPE0.20

MARKET DEPENDENCE

AGE: 55MIN
1.92× BETA
  • 63D CORRELATION0.55
  • 20D RELATIVE STRENGTH+1.3%
  • 63D RELATIVE STRENGTH-9.6%

DOWNSIDE PROFILE

AGE: 55MIN
47 MODERATE
  • 1D VAR / 95%−4.4%
  • 1D EXPECTED SHORTFALL−6.4%
  • 63D LOSS DAYS49%
  • 63D MAX DRAWDOWN-20.7%
  • 252D MAX DRAWDOWN-29.4%

RETURN EFFICIENCY

AGE: 55MIN
-0.43×
  • 63D MOVE-6.0%
  • 63D DOWNSIDE VOL28.0%
  • 63D REALIZED VOL38.1%

RISK / REWARD

AGE: 55MIN
0.83×
  • UPSIDE TO RESISTANCE5.7%
  • DOWNSIDE TO SUPPORT6.9%
  • SUPPORT$335.20
  • RESISTANCE$380.84
  • ATR / PRICE2.93%

FUNDAMENTAL QUALITY

AGE: 8H
93 VERY STRONG
  • GROSS MARGIN68.8%
  • OPERATING MARGIN48.5%
  • NET MARGIN42.9%
  • FCF MARGIN44.2%
  • EARNINGS QUALITY1.06×
  • RETURN ON EQUITY38.4%

FUNDAMENTAL MOMENTUM

AGE: 8H
100 VERY STRONG
  • REVENUE GROWTH+85.5%
  • NET INCOME GROWTH+216.1%

ESTIMATE DIRECTION

AGE: 55MIN
-1.4%
  • EPS REVISION / 7D+0.1%
  • REVISION BREADTH-45%

VALUATION PRESSURE

AGE: 15H
62 ELEVATED
  • FORWARD P/E18.6×
  • TRAILING P/E46.0×
  • PEG0.37×
  • EV / EBITDA35.1×
  • PRICE / BOOK17.2×

EXPECTATIONS VS REALITY

AGE: 2H
CONSENSUSOctober-quarter EPS is estimated at $3.83.

EXPECTATIONS 50 NEUTRAL

PRICED-IN BAR—
REPORTED REALITYJuly-quarter EPS was $3.32, with substantial revenue and net-income growth.

SURPRISE GAP

AGE: 8H
-4.2%

July EPS exceeded its matching $3.24 estimate.

  • LATEST EPS SURPRISE+2.5%
  • BEAT RATE100%

EVIDENCE BALANCE

AGE: 2H
A stalled rebound could restore pressure within the trading range. Price closes above the recent high and holds the recovered range.
  • JUDGMENT STATECONFLICTED
  • SUPPORTOver 20 completed sessions, AVGO returned +3.52%; The month-long price structure is less decisive than the latest rebound.
  • OPPOSITION—
  • CONFLICTJuly-quarter EPS was $3.32, with substantial revenue and net-income growth. July EPS exceeded its matching $3.24 estimate.

SCENARIO PATHS

AGE: 2H
BULL CASE28% WEIGHT

Business growth accompanies a confirmed breakout.

TRIGGER · A daily close above 380.84, the recent upper price boundary.

INVALIDATION · Price returns below 335.20, the recent lower price boundary.

RANGE · +5.0% TO +13.2%
BASE CASE53% WEIGHT

The recovery pauses within the existing range.

TRIGGER · Daily closes remain between 335.20 and 380.84.

INVALIDATION · A retained daily close outside 335.20 to 380.84.

RANGE · -5.3% TO +5.0%
BEAR CASE19% WEIGHT

Resistance holds and the rebound loses support.

TRIGGER · A daily close below 335.20, the recent lower price boundary.

INVALIDATION · Price recovers above 380.84, the recent upper price boundary.

RANGE · -10.5% TO -5.3%

VIEW HISTORY

AGE: 2H
AS OFSTANCETHESIS STATESIGNAL SUMMARYCONFIDENCE
AS OFOct 9, 2026STANCEWAIT FOR CONFIRMATIONTHESIS STATEUNCHANGEDSIGNAL SUMMARYThe rebound has yet to confirmCONFIDENCE63 SOLID

FORECAST TRACK RECORD

AGE: —
—
  • CLOSED FORECASTS—
  • AVERAGE REALIZED RETURN—

EVENT RISK WINDOW

AGE: 25D
DATEEVENTRISK CHANNELRISK SUMMARY
DATEOct 14, 2026EVENTConsumer inflationRISK CHANNELINFLATIONRISK SUMMARYInflation release can reset rate expectations
DATEOct 15, 2026EVENTProducer inflationRISK CHANNELINFLATIONRISK SUMMARYProducer prices can shift inflation expectations
DATEOct 28, 2026EVENTInterest-rate decisionRISK CHANNELRATESRISK SUMMARYRate decision can reset market conditions
DATEOct 29, 2026EVENTIncome and PCE inflationRISK CHANNELINFLATIONRISK SUMMARYInflation and spending can reprice rates
DATENov 3, 2026EVENTLabor turnoverRISK CHANNELLABORRISK SUMMARYLabor turnover can shift rate expectations